guncurug: Churchill Downs

Will Arlington Park Be Open in a Year?

07.22

Bo-Rail Gave Super Saver a Super Ride to the Roses

17.38

UPDATE: 9:45AM When I posted the picks last night I said that I might be back to supplement them as I gave further thought to the race and got a better feel for the weather and track conditions. It has been raining hard since about 5:00am and the prediction is for at least another couple of hours before a let-up. It is also expected to return later this afternoon, all of which promises an off track at best and sloppy one at worse.

With that in mind, I still think Stately Victor has a great chance to win this thing. However, I also would like to add the filly, Devil May Care and Awesome Act (I keep calling this horse Awesome Age because there is a decent bourbon called Ancient Age) to the mix. The filly has the pedigree to not only get the distance buy handle the off track. She won the Bonnie Miss faster than the boys ran the Florida Derby an hour later. She's in this race because Pletcher saw a softer spot than the Oaks.

Awesome Act ran well in Europe and his third in the Wood behind Eskendereya came despite losing a shoe. His pedigree shows both distance and off track. His sire won the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs and loved the track.

So, there you have it - I'm only adding these two to the mix. I'm not backing out of the other ones. With a twenty horse field you can add several permutations of five horses in mix and match exactas and straight bets. How I end up using these horses may depend on the condition of the track closer to post time.

I'm sitting here in front of the TV watching the fillies parade to the gate for the start of the Kentucky Oaks on a day without a cloud in the sky and before an Oaks Day record of in excess of 116,000. It's hard for me to imagine how bad the track is likely to look tomorrow but with the forecast calling for severe thunderstorms all day, it's prudent to factor off-track performance into your handicapping if you can. Unfortunately, this crop of three year olds doesn't have a great deal of off-track experience for us to call on.

As I mentioned this morning, the two likely favorites drew the two worst post positions, the pole and the far outside. It will be worse for Sidney's Candy, a notable frontrunner, than Luckin At Lucky, who can be rated if he doesn't get boxed as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. That said, trip is everything in the cattle call that is the twenty horse start of the Derby. I still think either or both of these horses should be there coming down the home stretch, but there are two relative longshots that have a real opportunity here. One, the unknown winner of the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, Stately Victor, is rumored to be an excellent performer on a off track. I say rumored to be as he is the only horse not to workout at Churchill Downs. All of his workouts were at the Downs owned training facility Trackside, which is also a marvelously downscale OTB facility. Stately Victor is owned by the Attorney General of Kentucky who is running for the US Senate and is named for his deceased best friend. It will be a true Kentucky moment for a state constitutional officer to receive the Derby trophy from another (the Governor).

The other relative long-shot is Ice Box. His odds won't be nearly as long as Stately Victor, more in the 10-1 or 15-1 range, but the Florida Derby winner is getting no pre-race attention. He has won all of his races at distances longer than a mile and should have no trouble with the Derby distance. His late running style should keep him out of trouble as the pack slips and slides through the backstretch. The track footing may be an issue for him as he is a famously late closer but should he not have any trouble with his footing look for a late surge around horses and down the stretch.

So, there you have it. My four horse exacta box. I may add to it tomorrow but as of now, that's what it looks like: 1-2-6-20.