guncurug: Kentucky Derby

Big East

The Kentucky Derby is often referred to as the Greatest Two Minutes in Sports and it lived up to its nickname again on Saturday in a race that featured 21-1 shot Animal Kingdom come roaring down the homestretch from out of nowhere to take the garland of roses by almost three lengths. Animal Kingdom defied not just the betting public but history, by being the first horse to ever win the Derby without having run a race over a dirt track. Animal Kingdom's previous races had all been on turf or synthetic tracks. His four career starts marked the fewest since Exterminator in 1918, and his six week layoff coming into the Derby marked the longest layoff since Needles in 1956. That should help him going into the Preakness in two weeks. The Triple Crown is grueling since it is three races in the span of five weeks, something that these young three year olds are not really used to doing yet. Animal Kingdom should be better prepared than most being considerably more rested than average going in.

The well-beaten favorite Dialed In will be challenging Animal Kingdom in the Preakness and has the chance to earn more money than the Derby winner should he take the black-eyed susans. As the winner of the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby, he is eligible for a $5.5 million bonus for capturing all three races being offered by MI Developments (formerly, Magna Entertainment) the owner of Pimlico, home of the Preakness, and Gulfstream, home of the first two races. Dialed In's trainer Nick Zito acknowledged that the bonus was a definite factor in deciding whether to run in the Preakness and how could it not be, if the horse is sound?

What the Kentucky Derby win means for Animal Kingdom's value is too early to tell. With so few races, we can't tell if the Derby is an aberration or a confirmation of his ability. The Derby was not only his first Grade I win, it was his first Grade II or Grade I race. How he does in the Preakness, Belmont and later in the summer at the Travers and the Breeders Cup in the fall, should he manage to stay in training that long, will ultimately determine his value. Of note, the winners of the last two Derbys never won again.

One thing seems certain, the stud fee for his sire, Leroidesanimaux, who stands at Stonewall Farm Stallions in Ocala, Florida, is going up from the current price of $10,000.

One last lament, this was almost a unique Derby for your loyal scribe, save for a still inexplicable last second decision. You see, I bet a trifecta on the Derby which included both Animal Kingdom and Nehro, but for some reason which I still can't recall I switched out Mucho Macho Man for Archarcharch. In other words I dropped the horse which came in third for one which broke his leg and is now retired from racing. It was the story of my betting day. I cashed three exacta tickets which won a collective $5.80. I didn't cash another ticket all day. Needless to say, that trifecta could have really come in handy.

Breeders Cup

As Keeneland Opens, the Lack of Casino Gambling's Effect on Kentucky Racing is More Evident Than Ever

06.40

Keeneland opens its Fall Meet today in a weekend whirlwind of nine graded stakes featuring five Grade I stakes, with eight of the nine races being "Win and You're In" Breeder's Cup specials. The strong weekend of stakes masks a continuation of the downturn in Kentucky racing and breeding that has been evident since the Churchill Downs spring meet, continuing through the just concluded Turfway meet and Keeneland's September yearling sale.

For the first time in memory, Keeneland has cut purses. For this three week meet which concludes on October 30, total purse money has been cut by about $1 million and two stake races have been eliminated. Traditionally, Keeneland has been able to weather downturns in attendance and handle because its sale revenue has served to prop up its racing revenue. However, in the last couple of years, with sale revenue falling annually and with race revenue down, it has been unable to support its purse structure.

The picture at Turfway, which Keeneland co-owns with Harrah's, has been even bleaker. Turfway's traditionally smaller purses have been unable to keep pace with racing in neighboring Indiana and West Virginia, both of whose tracks are supplemented by casino revenue. In a scenario never before contemplated, Kentucky owners and trainers are forsaking the state and setting up shop at Indiana Downs and Hoosier Park, relatively new venues which had traditionally been considered no higher than the A League of racing. However, this year, Indian even saw a Triple Crown winner run in the state for the first time as Lookin at Lucky won the Indiana Derby at Hoosier Park.

Keeneland is trying something new this weekend. Tomorrow, for the first time, there will be an Arabian race which will be the first time in memory that Arabian horses will be running in sanctioned competition in Kentucky. Should be interesting as Arabian were the foundation sires of all thoroughbreds.

Kentucky is even losing stallions to other states that have higher breeding incentives fueled in many cases by casino or slots revenue. While a certain number of stallions leave Kentucky every year, and a portion of those leave for overseas, it appears to many Kentucky breeders that more stallions, and more highly regarded ones, are leaving for other states in response to breeding incentive programs that Kentucky is not able to afford to match.

All of this is empirical evidence to demonstrate the need for Kentucky to act quickly if it expects to keep its place as the primary locale for its signature industry. The Kentucky General Assembly in its session beginning in January, 2011 must pass some form of casino gaming or slots authorization legislation, everv if its no better than to place a constitutional amendment before the voters. Since the Republicans in the State Senate refuse to contemplate casino gaming or slots in any form and refuse to allow any amendment to be placed before the voters, I would urge any Kentuckians who read this blog to vote against any Republican state senate candidate in their district who is not firmly committed to approve some form of gaming legislation. With Senate President David Williams now campaigning for Governor, it will be even more difficult to pass legislation without a Democratic majority in the Senate or the votes of several Republican senators willing to cross their leader. Please take this into account when you head to the voting booth.

This end your political announcement for the day. No animals were harmed in the making of this commercial.

Churchill Downs

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Churchill Downs

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17.38

Churchill Downs

Derby Picks

07.25

UPDATE: 9:45AM When I posted the picks last night I said that I might be back to supplement them as I gave further thought to the race and got a better feel for the weather and track conditions. It has been raining hard since about 5:00am and the prediction is for at least another couple of hours before a let-up. It is also expected to return later this afternoon, all of which promises an off track at best and sloppy one at worse.

With that in mind, I still think Stately Victor has a great chance to win this thing. However, I also would like to add the filly, Devil May Care and Awesome Act (I keep calling this horse Awesome Age because there is a decent bourbon called Ancient Age) to the mix. The filly has the pedigree to not only get the distance buy handle the off track. She won the Bonnie Miss faster than the boys ran the Florida Derby an hour later. She's in this race because Pletcher saw a softer spot than the Oaks.

Awesome Act ran well in Europe and his third in the Wood behind Eskendereya came despite losing a shoe. His pedigree shows both distance and off track. His sire won the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs and loved the track.

So, there you have it - I'm only adding these two to the mix. I'm not backing out of the other ones. With a twenty horse field you can add several permutations of five horses in mix and match exactas and straight bets. How I end up using these horses may depend on the condition of the track closer to post time.

I'm sitting here in front of the TV watching the fillies parade to the gate for the start of the Kentucky Oaks on a day without a cloud in the sky and before an Oaks Day record of in excess of 116,000. It's hard for me to imagine how bad the track is likely to look tomorrow but with the forecast calling for severe thunderstorms all day, it's prudent to factor off-track performance into your handicapping if you can. Unfortunately, this crop of three year olds doesn't have a great deal of off-track experience for us to call on.

As I mentioned this morning, the two likely favorites drew the two worst post positions, the pole and the far outside. It will be worse for Sidney's Candy, a notable frontrunner, than Luckin At Lucky, who can be rated if he doesn't get boxed as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. That said, trip is everything in the cattle call that is the twenty horse start of the Derby. I still think either or both of these horses should be there coming down the home stretch, but there are two relative longshots that have a real opportunity here. One, the unknown winner of the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, Stately Victor, is rumored to be an excellent performer on a off track. I say rumored to be as he is the only horse not to workout at Churchill Downs. All of his workouts were at the Downs owned training facility Trackside, which is also a marvelously downscale OTB facility. Stately Victor is owned by the Attorney General of Kentucky who is running for the US Senate and is named for his deceased best friend. It will be a true Kentucky moment for a state constitutional officer to receive the Derby trophy from another (the Governor).

The other relative long-shot is Ice Box. His odds won't be nearly as long as Stately Victor, more in the 10-1 or 15-1 range, but the Florida Derby winner is getting no pre-race attention. He has won all of his races at distances longer than a mile and should have no trouble with the Derby distance. His late running style should keep him out of trouble as the pack slips and slides through the backstretch. The track footing may be an issue for him as he is a famously late closer but should he not have any trouble with his footing look for a late surge around horses and down the stretch.

So, there you have it. My four horse exacta box. I may add to it tomorrow but as of now, that's what it looks like: 1-2-6-20.