UPDATE: 9:45AM   When I posted the picks last night I said that I might be back to supplement them as I gave further thought to the race and got a better feel for the weather and track conditions.  It has been raining hard since about 5:00am and the prediction is for at least another couple of hours before a let-up.  It is also expected to return later this afternoon, all of which promises an off track at best and sloppy one at worse. 

With that in mind, I still think Stately Victor has a great chance to win this thing.  However, I also would like to add  the filly, Devil May Care and Awesome Act (I keep calling this horse Awesome Age because there is a decent bourbon called Ancient Age)  to the mix.   The filly  has the pedigree to not only get the distance buy handle the off track.  She won the Bonnie Miss faster than the boys ran the Florida Derby an hour later.  She's in this race because Pletcher saw a softer spot than the Oaks.

Awesome Act ran well in Europe and his third in the Wood behind Eskendereya came despite losing a shoe.  His pedigree shows both distance and off track.  His sire won the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs and loved the track. 

So, there you have it - I'm only adding these two to the mix.  I'm not backing out of the other ones.  With a twenty horse field you can add several permutations of five horses in mix and match exactas and straight bets. How I end up using these horses may depend on the condition of the track closer to post time.


I'm sitting here in front of the TV watching the fillies parade to the gate for the start of the Kentucky Oaks on a day without a cloud in the sky and before an Oaks Day record of in excess of 116,000.  It's hard for me to imagine how bad the track is likely to look tomorrow but with the forecast calling for severe thunderstorms all day, it's prudent to factor off-track performance into your handicapping if you can.  Unfortunately, this crop of three year olds doesn't have a great deal of off-track experience for us to call on.