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Keeneland opens its Fall Meet today in a weekend whirlwind of nine graded stakes featuring five Grade I stakes, with eight of the nine races being "Win and You're In" Breeder's Cup specials.  The strong weekend of stakes masks a continuation of the downturn in Kentucky racing and breeding that has been evident since the Churchill Downs spring meet, continuing through the just concluded Turfway meet and Keeneland's September yearling sale.

For the first time in memory, Keeneland has cut purses. For this three week meet which concludes on October 30, total purse money has been cut by about $1 million and two stake races have been eliminated.  Traditionally, Keeneland has been able to weather downturns in attendance and handle because its sale revenue has served to prop up its racing revenue.  However, in the last couple of years, with sale revenue falling annually and with race revenue down, it has been unable to support its purse structure.

The picture at Turfway, which Keeneland co-owns with Harrah's, has been even bleaker.  Turfway's traditionally smaller purses have been unable to keep pace with racing in neighboring Indiana and West Virginia, both of whose tracks are supplemented by casino revenue.  In a scenario never before contemplated, Kentucky owners and trainers are forsaking the state and setting up shop at Indiana Downs and Hoosier Park, relatively new venues which had traditionally been considered no higher than the A League of racing.  However, this year, Indian even saw a Triple Crown winner run in the state for the first time as Lookin at Lucky won the Indiana Derby at Hoosier Park.

Keeneland is trying something new this weekend.  Tomorrow, for the first time, there will be an Arabian race which will be the first time in memory that Arabian horses will be running in sanctioned competition in Kentucky.  Should be interesting as Arabian were the foundation sires of all thoroughbreds.

Kentucky is even losing stallions to other states that have higher breeding incentives fueled in many cases by casino or slots revenue. While a certain number of stallions leave Kentucky every year, and a portion of those leave for overseas, it appears to many Kentucky breeders that more stallions, and more highly regarded ones, are leaving for other states in response to breeding incentive programs that Kentucky is not able to afford to match.

All of this is empirical evidence to demonstrate the need for Kentucky to act quickly if it expects to keep its place as the primary locale for its signature industry.  The Kentucky General Assembly in its session beginning in January, 2011 must pass some form of casino gaming or slots authorization legislation, everv if its no better than to place a constitutional amendment before the voters.  Since the Republicans in the State Senate refuse to contemplate casino gaming or slots in any form and refuse to allow any amendment to be placed before the voters, I would urge any Kentuckians who read this blog to vote against any Republican state senate candidate in their district who is not firmly committed to approve some form of gaming legislation.  With Senate President David Williams now campaigning for Governor, it will be even more difficult to pass legislation without a Democratic majority in the Senate or the votes of several Republican senators willing to cross their leader.  Please take this into account when you head to the voting booth.

This end your political announcement for the day.  No animals were harmed in the making of this commercial.

One of thoroughbred racing's most illustrious fillies has been retired from racing.  Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra has been sent to the breeding shed by her owner Jess Jackson before the end of her four year old year, with no explanation other than a reference to her less than stellar 2010 racing performance.  Her retirement ensures that there will be no match-up between her and the undefeated champion older filly or mare Zenyatta, winner of last year's Breeders Cup Classic. 
 

Churchill Downs Inc. (CHDN) conducted its annual meeting yesterday and the most interesting bit of news to come out of the meeting was not the resignation of Susan Packard as a director.  Nor was it anything that was actually discussed during the meeting itself.  No, the real news of the meeting came in an interview that CEO Bob Evans gave to the Louisville Courier-Journal.

During the interview he once again stressed the importance of slot machines and other forms of casino style gaming not only to the company in general (race track revenue accounted for 53% of gross profit last year down from 88% in 2006) but to the health of individual tracks.  Churchill Downs and Arlington Park are the only two tracks in Churchill Downs' portfolio that do not now have some form of casino style gaming to help support the track operations.

Without a dramatic change in the atmosphere and composition of the Kentucky General Assembly, specifically the State Senate, it is unlikely that Churchill Downs will see that help anytime soon.  However, it does have the Kentucky Derby and Oaks for support and while that's not a complete panacea, it does help enough to keep the track operating.

Arlington Park, however, is in a much different situation.  With no casino style gaming, and the prospects for getting that approved not very high at the moment, the chance of Arlington closing by next summer is very high.  Arlington was actually closed in 1998-99 due to insufficient revenue, but reopened following its purchase by Churchill Downs in 2000.  Unless Arlington gains approval for casino style gaming or some other form of support, Evans intimated that it would be closed.  Given its prior shutdown and the Illinois legislature's continued refusal to approve casino style gaming at race tracks, the future of Arlington looks bleak indeed.

I'm a bit late in reporting but there's good news for those of you who like to summer in Saratoga.  On Monday, New York Governor David Patterson signed a bill authorizing a $25 million loan to the New York Racing Association allowing NYRA to operate meets at Belmont, Saratoga and Aqueduct.  Had it not received the loan, NYRA would have followed through with the notice it had sent to its 1400 employees that it planned to shut down the tracks following the running of the Belmont Stakes on June 5.  NYRA's problems stem from the inability to get approved slot machines and video lottery terminals installed and operating at Aqueduct in a timely manner.  Racing has been insufficient to actually fund NYRA's operations several years now.

When Maryland was faced, last year,  with the bankruptcy of Magna Entertainment, the owner of Pimlico Race Course and the Preakness Stakes it refused to sit back and await results like so many other state and municipal governments faced with the threat of losing local sports franchises.  The Maryland General Assembly swung into action passing legislation giving the state condemnation authority over all of Magna's Maryland assets, including the Preakness, which, when coupled with Maryland's existing right of first refusal over any transfer of Pimlico gave the state all the hammer it needed to secure an agreement with Pimlico's owner ensuring the Preakness Stakes will remain in Maryland forever.

Pimlico is about to get new owners in MI Developments (a Frank Stronach controlled entity and a successor to Magna) and Penn National Gaming, Inc.  As a condition of the state's waiver of its refusal rights, the state and MI Developments entered into an agreement known as the Preakness Covenant that the Preakness Stakes could never be moved from Maryland.  MI Developments agreed that the Preakness Covenant would be binding on its successors, any action in connection with the agreement could only be tried in Maryland courts and subject to Maryland law and that Maryland's remedy would be specific performance of the Covenant, blocking the removal of the race.

While Maryland had the advantage of a looming bankruptcy to goad the legislature into action, and the law required no cash outlay on the state's part, the idea of declaring the Preakness Stakes a state asset could be a useful model to a community determined not to lose a professional sports franchise which threatens to relocate.   The costs to the state and municipality may be greater than would be apparent in a condemnation proceeding for Pimlico or just the Preakness might have been but, remember Maryland never actually had to condemn anything.  It was the presence of the condemnation threat and the first refusal right which brought the new owner to the table and made the Preakness Covenant possible.  Imagine what might have happened in Seattle had such laws been in place when Clay Bennett showed up to take the Sonics to Oklahoma City.

In case you missed it, here's is today's Preakness victory by Lookin' At Lucky:

A few links to get your week off to a good start, or at least give you something to read while you drink your coffee and delay opening your office email.

The track was slop but it wasn't uniformly so and only someone intimately familiar with the way Churchill Downs drains would know the channels to the finish line that held firmer ground.  The race is a cavalry charge at the beginning and one key to winning is to avoid getting too banged up or boxed during the early going (sorry Luckin At Lucky and Stately Victor) to be unable to recover.  The early pace was a killer and anyone who went out with Conveyance and Sidney's Candy was cooked after the first half just as they were.


So, how was I so wrong in leaving Super Saver out?  I stupidly discounted the Calvin Borel factor.  Super Saver had shown nothing leading up to the Derby to indicate that he could win this race.  He had only won one race.  His sire, the late Maria's Mon, had given us a Derby winner, Monarchos, and there was distance and class all over his pedigree.  Again, why did I miss him - it was those prior performances, that measly single win.

So, ok, I blew it and forgot about Calvin.  If ever there was a jockey for a course, it's Calvin and Churchill Downs.  It's his home track and he performs at his absolute peak here.  Three of the last four Derbies is only the beginning.  This horse went off at 9-1 and probably should have been about 25-1, a testament to the fans faith in Calvin.  He rode this race about as nearly perfectly as a rider can, saving ground along the rail where the trip is shorter and he knew the ground was firmer, until he saw a bit of daylight heading into the stretch and headed out just a bit to find a way through to the lead.  It was then back to the rail and on to the finish with nothing in front of him but roses.  Calvin, I promise never to overlook you again.

In case you missed the race, here's a replay:

UPDATE: 9:45AM   When I posted the picks last night I said that I might be back to supplement them as I gave further thought to the race and got a better feel for the weather and track conditions.  It has been raining hard since about 5:00am and the prediction is for at least another couple of hours before a let-up.  It is also expected to return later this afternoon, all of which promises an off track at best and sloppy one at worse. 

With that in mind, I still think Stately Victor has a great chance to win this thing.  However, I also would like to add  the filly, Devil May Care and Awesome Act (I keep calling this horse Awesome Age because there is a decent bourbon called Ancient Age)  to the mix.   The filly  has the pedigree to not only get the distance buy handle the off track.  She won the Bonnie Miss faster than the boys ran the Florida Derby an hour later.  She's in this race because Pletcher saw a softer spot than the Oaks.

Awesome Act ran well in Europe and his third in the Wood behind Eskendereya came despite losing a shoe.  His pedigree shows both distance and off track.  His sire won the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs and loved the track. 

So, there you have it - I'm only adding these two to the mix.  I'm not backing out of the other ones.  With a twenty horse field you can add several permutations of five horses in mix and match exactas and straight bets. How I end up using these horses may depend on the condition of the track closer to post time.


I'm sitting here in front of the TV watching the fillies parade to the gate for the start of the Kentucky Oaks on a day without a cloud in the sky and before an Oaks Day record of in excess of 116,000.  It's hard for me to imagine how bad the track is likely to look tomorrow but with the forecast calling for severe thunderstorms all day, it's prudent to factor off-track performance into your handicapping if you can.  Unfortunately, this crop of three year olds doesn't have a great deal of off-track experience for us to call on.

It's Oaks Down in the River City and for those of you who are unfamiliar with the ways of Louisville, that means it's a holiday here and no one will be working, whether they go to the track or stay home and plant a garden.  The day has dawned with beautiful blue skies, sunshine and temperatures that are expected to hit 85 by post time of the Kentucky Oaks.  This is in stark contrast to the weather forecast for tomorrow, which features heavy thunderstorms all day, making for a sloppy track and a drenched crowd, particularly in the infield.


Derby Week is usually good for new on the racing and breeding industry, since so many players descend on Louisville for the week.  This week, however, news has been relatively scarce.  We have learned that Frank Stronach, the man responsible for taking Santa Anita, Gulfstream  and Pimlico racetracks into bankruptcy, will be allowed to keep them as they emerge from bankruptcy; a result which should be viewed with mixed emotions.  He is a better owner than a group of creditors would have been, but he needs to hire someone with a bold vision and the ability to generate cash from sources other than on track wagering or we will be right back where we started in just a few years.

In a interesting article, Joe Drape of the New York Times takes a look at the economic woes of the thoroughbred industry as seen by the depressed state of the industry in Kentucky.  The Kentucky horse industry has been trying to get authority to operate casinos, or at least slot machines, for years now only to be thwarted every time by the Republican controlled State Senate, which refuses to pass any bill authorizing gambling or permitting any measure go to the voters for approval.

The Oaks Day card at Churchill Downs features a number of stakes races in addition to the Oaks itself.  The most interesting of these will be the $400,000 Grade II La Troienne, which marks the return of Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra to Churchill Downs where she won the 2009 Kentucky Oaks.   She is a 3-5 morning line favorite in the 1 1/16 mile race, which also features Zardana, the only horse to ever beat her.  Zardana bested Rachel Alexandra in her return to racing on March 13.

The Oaks is a bit more wide open than orginally anticipated as a result of the entry of Devil May Care in the Derby, although Blind Luck will go off as a heavy favorite.  Include Quiet Temper and Amen Hallejuah in your exacta. 

As for the Derby, the misfortune afflicting favorites has continued as the favorite and second favorite have drawn terrible post positions.  Lookin At Lucky will be in post position one and Sidney's Candy has drawn the far outside, post position twenty.  I'll be back later with my Kentucky Derby picks since the weather is forcing me to reconsider some choices but I'll leave you with this thought: consider the slop performance in their pedigree as you try to discern how these horses will run

It's a rainy Monday in the Ville to start Derby Week and it's gloomier than usual around the Todd Pletcher barn. Pletcher, who has been the nation's leading trainer and his horses have won seven of the twenty-one graded prep races leading up to the Derby.  Going into last weekend, he had a possible eight horses that could be Derby entrants and that didn't count the filly Devil May Care who was entered in both the Derby and the Kentucky Oaks.  However, his Derby luck, or rather the lack thereof, since Pletcher is 0-24 in Derby starts, unfortunately seems to be holding.

Everyone's favorite Eskendereya, the winner going away of the Wood Memorial was ruled out of the Derby on Sunday with a leg problem.  Then, this morning, Pletcher scratched Rule but confirmed the filly Devil May Care will run in the Derby.  Barring injury, and the possible scratch of Line of David who struggled in his workout today on an off track, the field should be set at twenty. 

The morning line will now not likely come from the Pletcher barn, which is probably a relief to Todd.  It is likely to be Lookin At Lucky, the third place finisher in the Santa Anita Derby after a very troubled race.  He is likely to be around 3-1. The next choice is probably the horse that beat him at Santa Anita, Sidney's Candy with Awesome Act third.  Awesome Act is an interesting horse.  He came over from England to win the Gotham Stakes and finished third in the Wood Memorial, so I think he got accustomed to the North American racing style just fine.  Also at a reasonably short price for a twenty horse field should be the filly.