This Is the Week Conference Expansion Gets Decided

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On Sunday, the Big Ten Presidents met for four hours and discussed expansion for at least half that time.  What was decided, if anything, has not yet been announced, although it appears that no vote has been taken.  What is clear is that the deadline the Big XII gave Nebraska and Missouri has accelerated the Big Ten timeline.


Last week, during the Big XII spring meeting, a deadline was given to both Nebraska and Missouri to affirm their commitment to the conference  by the end of this week.  The deadline could be extended until June 15.  Whether that same deadline was given to the six schools allegedly departing for the Pac-10, essentially the Big XII  South less Baylor plus Colorado, is not known.  At the end of the Pac-10 spring meeting, Larry Scott, the Pac-10 commissioner was given authority to pursue expansion without having to come back to the conference board.  Presumably, any final decision will still need ratification by the Presidents.

So, are we any closer to knowing where we are with this business?  The outlines of the landscape are starting to appear but nothing can really be known for sure until the Big Ten and Texas make their decisions.  First, the Big Ten needs to decide how many it is taking and whether Notre Dame is coming along.  Assuming it is going to 16 schools, and discussions with both Nebraska and Missouri lead me to believe that it will, the other logical choices are Notre Dame, Syracuse and Rutgers.  If they are able to convince Texas to join the Big Ten rather than the Pac-10, then scratch the last two and add UT and its traveling partner wherever it goes Texas A&M.  In that case, the Pac-10 will likely only go with Colorado and Utah because adding the Oklahoma schools really doesn't do much for its television footprint while Colorado and Utah bring the Denver and Salt Lake City markets and make decent traveling partners as well as being academically compatible.

If Texas opts to look westward, then the move of the Big XII South to the Pac-10 is likely and the destruction of the Big XII will be complete.  The big losers in that scenario will be Kansas and Kansas State, who will have no BCS conference to land in.  The Mountain West may be their only alternative, which may be sufficient, together with the addition of Boise State which is expected to happen tomorrow, to catapult the MWC to BCA automatic qualifying status.  Iowa State will also be without a BCS home and expect intense political pressure on Iowa to bring Iowa State into the Big Ten.  The survival of the Big East is dependent of the number of schools which bolt for the Big Ten.  If it's only Notre Dame, then no big deal.  If more football schools leave, then the remaining football schools will seek a merger with the ACC. The last bit of fallout will be the SEC raiding the ACC for Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech and Clemson, creating openings for the Big East schools to fill.  

With the Big Ten now accelerating it process, we should see the dominoes fall before the week is out.

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